Posts in Economics

Change Is Not Easy

Change is not easy. Fred Wilson blogged about how if you seek to understand, or seek to see the world differently, Change.  He is seeing change in his portfolio companies.  In some of my portfolio companies, I have seen that …






Stock Indexes and Success

Today the jobs number will be released. It’s probably going to be a good number. The number has nothing to do with Trump being elected. He’s only 7 weeks in. Ramping up hiring takes a lot longer than that. Since …






Clearing is Centralized, and Concentrates Risk

One of the things blockchain might be able to do better is clearing.  Clearing of swaps especially.  Under Dodd-Frank, the government mandated a lot of swaps clearing.  Logically, this made sense.  I was initially in favor of moving plain vanilla …






Trump Loses on Department of Labor Law

“With or without regulation by the federal government, the principle of ‘clients first’ is here to stay.” – Jack Bogle When I read the Department of Labor was wading into financial regulation, my first inclination was dread.  I didn’t trust …






Bitcoin Trading Volume Falls Off A Cliff

The exchange space in Bitcoin has been interesting.  I have been observing it with a keen interest.  Exchanges have been interesting to me my entire life.  I was on the board of the worlds largest exchange.  Everyone thinks exchanges are …






What Trump Inherits

Donald Trump enters the office with the highest debt to GDP ratio of any president since Truman in 1948 (post WWII). (via SRP) pic.twitter.com/Pw3W6v9RYy — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) January 20, 2017 Today America will do something that’s always been pretty …






The Amount of Venture Debt is Increasing

My whole life, I have watched macroeconomics.  It is the “dismal” science.  But, as a futures trader, you could make some money by paying attention to macroeconomics and trying to piece together what you thought would happen.  A lot of …






Are Angels Muscling in on VC’s?

Read an article on AngelList.  It’s a pretty cool platform.  Here is a quote from the WSJ article: Since launching six years ago, AngelList has shaken up the venture-capital landscape, creating new players on the industry’s traditional turf and giving …






Before You Get Too Cheery About the “Trump Rally”

I subscribe to the Tastytrade newsletter and read it every morning.  I don’t always agree with them, but they always have some interesting ideas and things to think about.  Being an old trader, I always keep an eye on the …






Repeal Dodd-Frank; Repeal Sarbanes-Oxley

One of the reasons we had the election we did was that people all over the United States are hurting economically.  It doesn’t show up in broad government statistics.  But, I have travelled all over the country and seen first …






The Oligopoly and Crony Employeeism

I posted this chart because my friend Arnold posted it on his Facebook. But, it’s a metaphor for everything in America these days.  Massive companies dominate every industry.  I’d urge everyone to read Professor John Cochrane’s essay on economic growth. …






The Business Blockchain-Saved For Posterity

Over a week ago,  WLV held a great event, The Business Blockchain, here in Chicago at 1871. 250 people came out.  There is high interest in this topic and we will probably do more around it.  We videotaped it and here …






Central Banks Buying Public Stocks Is A Really Bad Idea

Janet Yellen runs the Federal Reserve.  She is a central banker.  She said that the Federal Reserve is looking at using money outside of normal monetary machinations.  They are looking at going into the stock market and buying public equity. …






The Future of Machine Learning

I listened to this podcast on my drive to Michigan last Friday. It’s really, really great. If you like to think about the future, and where the puck is going, put your headphones on and listen critically. What is revealed …






Where Is The Next Big Short?

Steve Eisman was in the news again.   People asked him where the next big short is.  I remember when I had to explain to people what shorting the market was-now thanks to Michael Lewis it’s part of the lexicon. …






VC Returns; What To Expect.

Yesterday, they published Andreessen-Horowitz venture fund returns. a16z shook up the VC world a bit when it started. They have done a lot of things differently, and other VC’s weren’t too happy. I don’t care too much about all that …






A Lot of Things Are Counter Intuitive

People try to make logical decisions and have logical opinions most of the time. Even if something they believe is illogical, they will rationalize it. I had never thought about the equal pay issue in this way before, but it …






How Deep In Debt Should You Go?

College students are graduating with a lot of debt these days.  Debt has to be paid back.  It never feels good to be in debt.  I was talking to an old friend, and he mentioned a rule of thumb for …