Posts by Jeff Carter

When Confirmation Bias Shapes Your Knowledge

How many people think Tulipmania was one of the first recorded behavioral economics financial disasters? Here is a quote from the crowd sourced Wikipedia page on the event. Tulip mania (Dutch: tulpenmanie) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age …

There Is Gold In The Crumbs

The response to the tax cut by a lot of politicians was laughable. A lot of them said that the $1000 bonuses were not that much. They said it wouldn’t be meaningful to people. On the flip side, they totally …

Wine Tasting And Surveying Damage

One of the nice things about California is the diversity of climates. My brother in law has lived in the wine country since the late 1970’s. He has been a volunteer firefighter for quite some time. Late last year, he …

Pitchers and Catchers Report

Pitchers and catchers reported this week. Spring is almost here.  I am excited for the Cubs season.  In Silicon Valley, I notice that there are only San Francisco Giants stickers and hats.  I was kind of surprised not to see …

Thought This Talk Was Interesting

I write this from the left coast.  I am spending some time out here to get away from the Chicago winter and to meet people.  I also do it to get out of my Chicago bubble.  I spent a short …

Do Your Homework

If you want to be successful, you have to put in the time.  Nothing worthwhile comes easy.   This is the same across all occupations and endeavors.  When I talk to millennials a lot of the time I hear, “That’s …

Are Contracts Rigged?

In the latest stock market dust-up a lot of people lost a lot of money on the CBOE $VIX and the $XIV. Howard Lindzon wrote about his $XIV experience here.  The $XIV was an ETF created by Credit Suisse. It …

CME’s Speed

You might have seen this article in the WSJ yesterday about how trades are confirmed by CME.  Some traders get confirmation before the rest of the market.  They are able to exploit that information advantage to create a profit for …

Betting On Same Horse, Different Race

One of the tough things about being a fund is you only get a limited number of investments.  Of those, you get to pick one in any particular race.  If you invest in one insurance startup, that investment ought to …

Stock Market Then and Now

No doubt you saw the volatility in the stock market last week. I was reading the editorial in the WSJ on The Bernanke Correction and started thinking about it. My accounts didn’t come through unscathed.  A hedge fund I am …

Getting Out of Bubbles

One good thing about getting out of Chicago once in awhile is I get out of routine and the bubble.  I grew up in the western suburbs of Chicago.  I worked and lived downtown.  I am a Chicagoan (minus the …

The Darker The Market The More It Needs Sunlight

There are a lot of nooks and crannies in capital markets.  Exchanges only trade the big ones.  I think it’s important to note that matching trades is super simple.  You can go out and buy a crude automated trading system …

Trade From Twitter

Kind of a cool idea that TD Ameritrade rolled out today. You will be able to initiate trades from Twitter.  Hey, maybe soon you will be able to do it with Alexa and Snapchat. TD already has that sort of …

YCharts Partners With Dynasty

If you read my post about the stock market NOT melting down yesterday, you saw a lot of charts incorporated into the post. I get those from Ycharts.  Today, Ycharts announced a partnership with Dynasty Financial Partners.  They have more …

Is This A Market Melt Down?

Short answer if you don’t want to read the rest of this is, no this is not a meltdown.  It’s not a correction either.  For newbies, meltdowns look like this.  If you believe this is a market meltdown, then perhaps …

Congrats to the Philly Fans

As a Cubs fan, I get it.  As a Blackhawks fan, I get it. The Eagles had never won a Super Bowl.  They hadn’t won a championship in football since 1960. CNBC’s Jim Cramer is a huge Eagles fan. Philly has …

The Hard Thing About Small Funds

One of the most difficult things about being in a small fund is how much capital to allocate to an investment.  Many funds put the exact same amount in each deal.  That doesn’t seem right to me because the valuations …