Big Data Week
- Posted by Jeff Carter
- on July 30th, 2012
This is a big data dump week for the stock ($SPY, $ES_F)and bond market. It also is for the corn market($ZC_F). Throughout this week, private crop estimates will be released on the condition and bushel per acre estimates of the corn crop. The USDA stats come out at the end of the week. Friday, unemployment numbers are released.
The corn market will move on any deviation of expectation. Right now, it’s looking at 122 bushels per acre.
Major advisory firms released production estimates ranging from 122 to 134 bushels per acre today, with Farm Futures yield model currently at 121.5 bushels per acre.
The 122 estimate came from a firm that utilizes satellite data. An industry crop tour put Iowa at 117 bushels per acre this week. That’s very significant, considering the fact that Iowa fared better than most areas for much of the growing season this year.
All of these estimates are well below USDA’s July estimate of 146 bushels per acre. It’s becoming increasingly likely that we will see the yield drop at least another 15 bushels. Then you have to start looking at harvested acres. Based on projections from previous region-wide droughts similar to this year, the data would suggest that harvested acres will drop anywhere from 4 to 6.5 million acres.
Overnight, the market held a bid together. Corn, beans and wheat are all higher and seem to regaining a bullish sentiment. The only big factor that can change the direction of the grain markets would be a change in the ethanol policy mandate. Changing that would bring crop prices down significantly.
The ADP number on unemployment is released on Tuesday, and the Challenger report wasn’t exactly bullish. The weakness is in the tech sector, and that is sort of alarming if we are depending on innovation to pull us out of the recession.
Technology firms, including those in computer, electronics, and
telecommunications, combined to announce 51,529 job cuts in the first half of
2012, a 260 percent increase from the 14,308 cuts announced during the same
period a year ago. The midyear total is, in fact, 39 percent higher than the
2011 yearend total of 37,038. It is the largest midyear total since 2009, when
the sector announced 118,108 job cuts in the first six months of the year.
When you look at non-farm payrolls, the data shows there is just no growth. We are regressing. Is there any chance we break the 100k barrier this week? It sure doesn’t seem like it. Of course, we need to be creating over 300k jobs per month to start rebuilding. We are a long way from that.
Companies are not hopeful. They don’t see growth on the horizon. There isn’t going to be any change in fiscal policy, and they are busy getting ready for the fiscal cliff. They have to be prepared when we go over it.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
Jeffrey Carter is an angel investor and independent trader. He specializes in turning concepts into profits. He co-founded Hyde Park Angels one of the most active angel groups in the United States in April of 2007. He previously served on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Board of Directors. He has done market commentary for (More...)
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