Illinois Governor Race

Well, the vote is close. Not yet settled. The results are very interesting on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, a dead heat as well. Realistically, I don’t see a huge difference between Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes. The Democratic race is more about which Democratic pols will control the spoils of election. Both are liberal tax and spend Democrats.

The Republican election was really interesting because of the fragmentation. Everyone ran as an outsider, but realistically, who could claim the outsider “tea party” label? Dan Proft and Adam Andzejewski could claim it. They were true outsiders.
How could someone like Andy McKenna claim an outsider role when he ran the Republican party for the past few years in Illinois? Jim Ryan was also a consummate insider. He previously held statewide elective office. He was connected to bad combine pols of the past. Kirk Dillard was featured in ads by the Obama campaign when he ran for President. Being aligned with Obama is hardly endearing to Republicans. But Dillard does have Scott Brown qualities- fiscal conservative and social moderate.

Bill Brady a downstate senator from Bloomington is the “Scott Brown” type candidate. He is relatively unknown in Chicago. He is a strong fiscal conservative-along with being a social conservative (unlike Brown in that respect) Brady is a Reagan Republican.

If you take the votes that Brady, Dillard and McKenna received, and add other candidates totals to them, Brady wins the election comfortably. Proft and Andzejewski’s votes would arguably all have gone to Brady. Ryan and Schillerstrom votes all to Dillard or McKenna. Even if you gave them all to Dillard, Brady still wins.

The economy is the biggest factor in this race. However, our former governor Blagojevich has a trial starting soon. The outcome, the testimony of that trial will sway independents. I cannot imagine it being good for Democrats. However, it could be that the effects of it are “less worse” than imagined. Two real wild cards neither candidate will have control over.

Brady will be a strong candidate against either Quinn or Hynes. His biggest negative will be his abortion stance. The Illinois collar counties are notoriously purple. (Fiscally conservative, socially moderate) If the economy is still in bad shape come late October, my gut tells me that people will vote their pocketbook. Brady will win. If the economy seems good, the Democrat will win.